Daryl Morey is a very smart man. He studied statistics, computer science, and business in top tier schools in the world. People without having much basketball background becoming a NBA GM is very unorthodox, but he has become a GM of Houston Rockets in 2007 and some say he can’t apply his book smart knowledge into basketball while others say he is revolutionizing the way game is played. Media says good thing here and bad thing there, but I wanted to dig a little deeper into how Houston Rockets has evolved under Morey and see if Morey is only book smart.
First thing that came to my mind was their strategy to limit mid range jumpers. From statistical perspective, he believes that long 2 pointer is simply the worst possible shot with lower chance of making with only 2 point outcome. Using R, I have plotted Rockets’ FG%, FGM, FGA in multiple different spots on the floor. And to observe the transformation under Morey, I have plotted shot chart for every year since 2007 to conduct accurate comparisons.
Notable change came between 2011-12 and 2012-13 season. From 2007 to 2012, Rockets were attempting around 1600~1900 mid range jumpers every season. As you can see from the chart below in 2012-13 season, the drastic change happens in their mid range FGA (1600 to 1000). Ultimately, fewer midrange jumpers led to more shots in the paint (1600 to 2600) and at the 3 point line (1200 to 2300).
This year in 2015-16 season (refer to the chart below), Rockets has already taken 1800 three pointers and is on a pace to take 2500 (which is the most by any team) by the end of the season.
So… What happened between 2011-12 and 2012-13 that forced Rockets to drastically change the way they play? Key events include ex-announcer, Kevin McHale being hired as a head coach in June 2011 and James Harden from OKC being traded to Houston Rockets prior to 2012-13 season. The play style has changed alot with James Harden leading the way and they have been improving their record steadily (34-32 in 2011-12 season, 45-37 in 2012-13 season, 54-28 in 2013-14 season, 56-26 in 2014-15 season) except for this year (31-32 in 2015-16 season). Overall, they have been very successful with their new mid range tactic (after Daryl Morey doing a test run with Rockets’ D-league team, Rio Grande Vipers, and winning the championships with the same tactic of limiting mid range jumpers).
So… next question could be, what in the hell happened this year after all those success?! That I will need further investigation. We can’t point out a single reason as there can be many factors involved. Starting from McHale being fired (after 4-7 start to season) and rumors about James Harden and Dwight Howard not getting along to a huge drop in Defensive Rating compared to last year, there are so many factors that need to be thoroughly analyzed. (I will revisit this topic later and will post it, so stay tuned!). However, one thing I can be sure is that Daryl Morey’s grand schema to limit mid range shots has been working and we will have to see which new strategy Morey will come up with to compensate for failed season this year.
NBA on Grid 