I would like to talk about Joe Johnson and his potential impact on Miami Heat. He left 14th place (no hope for the playoff) Brooklyn Nets team to 4th place injury-filled Miami Heat team for playoff contention.
First of all, it was a great pick up by Miami Heat. With their leading scorer, Chris Bosh, indefinitely out (exploring medical treatment options currently), Miami doesn’t have anybody offensively to turn to except Dwyane Wade. However, Dwyane Wade is currently averaging 18.9 ppg with Effective FG% at the LOWEST IN HIS CAREER at .456 (which comes from shooting .200 on 3-pointers and .462 in 2-pointers, BOTH LOWEST OF HIS CAREER).
The key question is, can Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson play alongside each other despite both being a heavy ball handler that needs ball in their hand. The answer to that, in my opinion, is YES. Wade is a very adaptable player who can change the way he plays for the benefit of the team (which was proven when Lebron joined Miami Heat and won 2 championships together). However, I would like to make it clear that 34 year-old Joe Johnson is by no means Lebron James.
In the recent times, Johnson has had tendency to rely on his isolation and jumpers. With his bigger size (standing 6 feet 7 inches) for a average guard in NBA, he should turn to his strength at the end of his career. As you can see from the cart below, he likes to post up at the elbow spot that’s 1 step inside 3 point line and play an isolation game there. He is shooting awful 33% and 36.5% from his favorite spots: elbows. Moreover, he is shooting 35.9% and 27.8% from elbows on 3 point lines as well. I don’t understand why he stubbornly go back to the same awful shooting spots, but he will need to STOP that.
On the bright side, he shoots a good percentage from the top of the 3 point line, right corner 3 point line, and under the hoop on the right hand side. If Miami can run a quick semi-transition play for Joe Johnson to post up very close to the hoop on the right hand side for a quick 2 point or have Wade kick out to right corner 3 pointer for Joe Johnson off double team, Miami can look to score more easily. With no other big offensive threat (including Justise Winslow, inconsistent Gerald Green, sub par Luol Deng), I would like to see more pick and roll between Dwyane Wade and Whiteside on the left elbow with Joe Johnson spotting up for 3 pointers on the right corner and Luol Deng on the left corner.
I certainly believe it will take some adjustment time (loss of Chris Bosh is huge as I think he is one of the best stretch 4 big man), but Joe Johnson will try to fit into it well himself while Miami Heat will try to make a good use of him.
My prediction:
Heat won’t be much better, but little bit worse with Chris Bosh out. I believe Heat will finish 5th or 6th in the Eastern conference this year unless nothing major (ex injury) happens.
Reference:
Year-by-year stats from:
http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/mia/miami-heat
Shot chart from:
NBA on Grid 