In the beginning of the season, almost all of the people predicted the championship repeat by Golden State Warriors and it seemed plausible coming into the series with GSW winning all three games vs OKC in the regular season.
However, after the game 1 win by OKC last night, I wanted to jump right into why I think OKC has a good chance to win the series. (sorry GSW fans including myself..)
Let’s take a quick look at the game yesterday.
OKC won mainly for two reasons:
1.Westbrook kept OKC in the game with his 3rd quarter performance
Westbrook’s 3rd quarter points stats
GSW had Curry and Livingston guarding Westbrook for the 3rd quarter, but he took full advantage especially when Curry was guarding him. In that quarter alone, he made three assists, one three pointer, one mid range jumper, one steal that led to an open layup, which generated 13 points just on Curry.
He was effective at attacking in transition as defenders was caught watching him. For example, gif below shows the transition offence by Westbrook where three of Warriors defenders are caught watching him and give up a Roberson back door layup.
Moreover, you can simply say everything was going Westbrook’s way if these kind (below GIF) of fade away three pointer with the shock clock down to 2 seconds are falling as well.
2.OKC continues to dominate in rebounding
It has become apparent to me that OKC’s biggest success comes from dominating the rebounding category (refer to the table below).
OKC vs. GSW Traditional stats comparison
Understanding that their iso-heavy basketball doesn’t always create the highest percentage open shots, OKC needed to find a way to maximize their strength (great individual skill) to cover for their weakness (taking tough shots). That’s where rebounding came in (which is more effective against a small ball team like GSW).
Again, key to success yesterday was the rebounding effort especially in the 4th quarter:
OKC vs. GSW Advanced stats comparison
As you can see from above table, OKC completely dominated the rebounding category in the 4th quarter. In spite of Westbrook’s and Durant’s inhumane individual skills, we need to understand that those two superstars won’t be making every shot. It is crucial for GSW to secure a possession after they shoot a tough contested jumper. However, GSW gave up 25% of offensive rebound to OKC, which will result in another chance for Westbrook and Durant to attack and they certainly will capitalize on their second chance.
As you can see in the table below, GSW uses a very small line up (with Draymond Green or Mareese Speights being the only big on the floor NOT in tandem) in the 4th quarter (refer to the table below).
GSW’s most used line up in the 4th quarter yesterday
Though GSW has had a tremendous success using a small ball line up in the 4th quarter in the regular season, it will be a huge challenge for them to fight for rebounds against OKC with two bigs always on the floor: either Ibaka/Adams or Adams/Kanter lineup. Also you would be surprised how good Adams is at Offensive Rebounding (refer to the table below). He is 6th in offensive rebounding rank ahead of DeAndre Jordan in per 48 minutes stats.
Offensive Rebound leaders in the regular season (per 48 minutes stats)
Although we will never know what would’ve happened if the Westbrook’s clear travel was called at the end of the game, it will be interesting to see what defensive scheme GSW brings to game 2.
One thing for sure is that GSW will have to make a some sort of adjustment to OKC’s strong pursuit of rebounds.
NBA on Grid 